Holy Roman Empire

Chapter 1003: Chapter 17, The Premature Mess Movement
 

The economic crisis had erupted in full force; not only was Franz cautious, but the British Government was also unwilling to act rashly at such a time.

Exporting revolution to the European Continent might seem capable of striking against the nascent hegemony of the Holy Roman Empire, but the problem lay in the contagious nature of revolutionary thought.

As Europe’s economy deteriorated, Britain’s economic situation was hardly any better. Although it wasn’t to the point where a single spark could cause a complete explosion, igniting a small fire would certainly bring them unbearable trouble.

As the world’s largest financial empire, Britain was also the world’s biggest Bubble Empire. Naturally, the losses brought on by the bursting of the bubble were the greatest.

In this highly developed financial nation, over one-sixth of the British populace had participated in stock, bond, and futures investments. In London, even the street sweepers could hold half a day’s conversation about stocks.

If it was just ordinary investment, it might have been fine; as long as companies didn’t have problems, one could simply wait for the next bullish market to get out of a bind, given that bullish markets in London were frequent, coming every few years.

Leveraged investment was a different story, many unfortunate souls experienced a wipeout in a single tumultuous wave. In the stock market crash, one could go from millionaire to million-pound debtor in mere minutes.

The artificially delayed bullish market collapse caused heavier losses than any before. Incomplete statistics showed that in the three months following the outbreak of the stock market crash, suicides in London exceeded 20,000, and hundreds of thousands of families were on the brink of bankruptcy due to the crash.

Direct evaporation of wealth was a minor problem; the more serious issue was that it became difficult for companies to finance. Enterprises with insufficient cash flow were either struggling on the verge of bankruptcy or had already gone bankrupt.

To survive the crisis, companies were laying off employees and cutting salaries to reduce operating costs. Consequently, Britain’s unemployment rate was soaring.

One could see how dissatisfied the populace was with the current economic environment simply by looking at the people protesting in the streets every day.

How to restore the economy had become the British Government’s biggest challenge. In such a crisis, Prime Minister Robert Cecil naturally had no interest in playing with fire.

…

Prime Minister Robert Cecil asked with doubt, “Vienna wants to mediate the Japanese-Spanish War with us. Could it be that they are ready to give up on Spain?”

It wasn’t an overreaction; there truly was no reason for the Holy Roman Empire to give up on Spain.

The Holy Roman Empire was indeed the biggest victim of the economic crisis, but this was only in terms of overall economic volume. When the proportion corresponding to the economic size was considered, the situation was entirely different.

Those engaged in industry were definitely better off than those in finance; no matter how paper wealth evaporated, fixed assets remained the same assets.

The performance of the Vienna Government made it clear that they had been granting sizeable loans to various European countries recently, obviously still having reserves.

Even if they wanted to curry favor with Britain, there were other options. There was absolutely no need to give up Spain, especially considering Spain’s strategic importance, as it could directly threaten the Strait of Gibraltar.

Foreign Minister Cameron shook his head, “On the contrary, the Vienna Government not only hasn’t given up on Spain but has also demanded that we stop supporting the Japanese.

According to that old fox Wessenberg, we are all European nations and cannot watch a Japanese monkey climb over Spain to a higher position. This rationale is simply irrefutable; I almost believed it myself.”

Belief, after all, had to consider interests. In the short term, it was clear that Japan’s victory in the Philippine battle would be more beneficial to Britain.

After some reflection, Robert Cecil slowly said, “No wonder the Spaniards have been so active recently, constantly visiting members of the Liberal Party.”

“If these unruly fellows are persuaded by the Spaniards, we’re going to be in big trouble. The Treasury must balance the accounts as soon as possible, for we can no longer provide direct funding to the Japanese Government starting now.”

The sentiment of Pan-Europeanism has no lethality, but the accusation of “wasting taxpayer money” is indeed fatal. Especially during a financial crisis, its power is boundless.

Never regard the Members of Parliament as too smart; in their eyes, partisan fighting is always more important than national strategy.

As for the general public, there’s no need to say much; most of the British public don’t even know where Japan and the Philippines are, so discussing strategic significance with them is no different than playing a lute to a cow.

If it were a confrontation with the Holy Roman Empire, perhaps the people could just about accept that. However, politics often require subtlety.

No matter how great the threat of the Holy Roman Empire or how intense the secret conflicts between the two countries, Robert Cecil was not willing to bring the conflicts into the open.

“Bringing things into the open” also meant “laying one’s cards on the table,” and unless there was complete confidence in victory, or the contradictions between the two countries could simply no longer be contained, neither side would choose to “lay their cards on the table.”

The reason is simple: revealing one’s hand often comes coupled with war. One unable to reach shore and another unable to cross the strait would result in a mutually destructive outcome.

Unable to play an open hand, using the Japanese and Spanish as pawns doesn’t convince the ordinary citizen. A slight guidance of public opinion and a change in wording could make the situation entirely different.

For instance: Saying that government officials accepted bribes from the Japanese, which is why they provided funding to the Japanese Government.

Not to mention ordinary citizens—even Robert Cecil himself might believe it if he wasn’t in power. There’s no other reason; this is just so very British.

Corruption is the norm; it’s only problematic if it’s absent. British corruption has embedded itself deeply into the mindset, so taking aim at this is bound to be correct. No matter where you begin to investigate, you are sure to unearth a plethora of worms.

To avoid tripping up on this, Robert Cecil decisively chose to follow his heart, as for the Japanese, they could only fend for themselves.

Direct support and indirect support may seem differed by only a single word, but in terms of strength, they are poles apart. The former can lend tens of millions of British Pounds to the Japanese Government, while the latter can hardly cough up a million pounds.

Cameron responded noncommittally, “Prime Minister, we really don’t have to be so pessimistic. Since the enemy can try to start from within our country and cut off the Japanese’s source of funds, we can naturally make a corresponding counterattack.

The Holy Roman Empire is hard to set in motion, but Spain is full of weaknesses. An economic crisis and the war have already pressed the Spanish people so much they can hardly breathe; it just needs a spark to detonate.

Of course, directly igniting the flames of revolution in Europe is still too risky, as it may backfire on us.

But no matter, the Spanish colonies are not peaceful either. The leader of the Cuban Independence Organization is in London; just send them back, support them with a batch of weaponry, and the Spaniards will be run ragged.

It will be a matter of seeing whether the Japanese can hold out longer, or the Spanish have greater resilience, and see whom God favors more.”

Politics is just that cruel. Britannia can give up on the Japanese; Vienna could equally give up on Spain—all for interest’s sake.

The Philippine Islands, due to their special geographic location, affect the peace and stability of the Southeast Asia region, which is why the Vienna Government supports Spain.

Cuba is different. Although Cuba’s sugar cane and cigars are not bad, they have nothing to do with the Holy Roman Empire. Whether Spain can hold it or not, that’s their own problem.

…

British withdrawal would take time to effectuate, but the crisis for the Japanese loomed imminent. Bereft of funds from London, the Tokyo Government instantly felt the pressure.

Since the outbreak of war, the Tokyo Government had resorted to a life of borrowing. Despite their utmost efforts, the government’s self-raised funds could still only cover two-thirds of the expenditures on the battlefield.

Upon receiving the dreadful news of the British cutting off loans, even with prior mental preparation, Emperor Meiji couldn’t help feeling restless and uneasy.

There was no help for it, mental preparation was not the same as financial readiness. The Japanese had never completely trusted the integrity of the British.

At the onset of the economic crisis, the Japanese Government realized the danger, but the war machine was already in motion and couldn’t simply be stopped at will.

Pawns are pawns, and from the moment they became a piece in the Anglo-Austrian geopolitical game, the initiative was no longer in the hands of the Japanese Government.

Emperor Meiji asked, “What do the British say, they can’t just cut off our loans without a reason, right?”@@novelbin@@

Ito Hirobumi replied, “The British explain that the risk is too high and does not meet the bank’s lending criteria. Unless we can provide more collateral, the banking consortium will terminate the loan.

Last night, I personally spoke with the British Ambassador. The London Government hasn’t abandoned its support for us, but due to political upheaval, it can no longer provide us with debt guarantees.

However, the British Ambassador did bring good news, the Spaniards’ good days are almost over. The situation in Cuba is unstable, and the Independence Organization is plotting an uprising. If we can just get through the next few difficult months, the situation will turn in our favor.

The British suggest that we exploit the mediation of the Vienna Government, strive for a ceasefire with the Spaniards first, and wait for the situation to further develop.”

No matter why the funds from the British Government turned into bank loans once they arrived in Japan, these were characteristics of the era.

Normal international loans in those days were not usurious, they teetered on the brink of it.

Interest-free or low-interest loans, even if politically conditional, were not something a private commercial bank should benefit from or bear the risk and offer concessions for.

The only way to make commercial banks undertake such seemingly unprofitable loans is for the government to pick up the tab, recouping the costs through other revenue channels.

Now that the situation is unfavorable, the London Government cannot continue to foot the bill, and naturally, bankers are no longer on board.

To reinforce the Japanese Government’s resolve to continue the war, the British resolutely employed the carrot-and-stick approach. The Cuban Independence Movement had not even begun, and yet the British presented it as favorable news to the Japanese Government.

Frowning, Emperor Meiji said, “Cuban Independence Movement, are the British not joking? In recent decades, have you heard of any place gaining independence successfully?”

It wasn’t that Emperor Meiji looked down on the Cubans; rather, it was the peak era of the Colonial Empire, and there had been no sign of a wave of colonial independence movements.

The Cuban Independence Movement had persisted for decades, initially supported by the United States. After the US split, the Cuban movement lost its support and entered a lull. Now, the sudden proposition by the British of the Cuban movement hardly seemed convincing.

Kiyotaka Kuroda responded, “Your Majesty, whether the Cuban Independence Movement succeeds or not is, for the moment, irrelevant to us. Whether they succeed or fail, it won’t affect the Philippine campaign in the short term.

In fact, the forces we’re fighting in the Philippine Islands are no longer the Spanish Army—if they were, we would not be in such a passive position.

Even if the Cuban uprising breaks out, the Spaniards could not possibly reassign the mercenaries in the Philippines to quell the unrest; the enemy we face would not be weakened as a result.”

The Cuban uprising’s sole effect was to deplete the Spaniards’ treasury. As an old-school Colonial Empire, nobody knew how deep their pockets were, but they were certainly expected to outspend us.

Instead of relying on the Cuban independence movement, it would be better to hope for a more severe economic crisis, one that might lead to a revolution in Spain.

Regrettably, the Spanish royal family had already reached a compromise, and the Carlist Faction, which had succeeded to the French throne, could no longer vie for the Spanish crown.

Hoping for Spain to falter was a long shot, as the British said; in the short term, the only advantage we could exploit was the mediation proposed by Vienna.

The problem was that the Vienna Government had always supported the Spaniards, and even if mediated, they would mostly side with them. Trying to use mediation to buy time and wait for the situation to improve was doubtful…

He had intended to suggest a “ceasefire,” but considering the domestic political situation, Kiyotaka Kuroda had no choice but to swallow his words.

It wasn’t that Kiyotaka Kuroda was timid; it was the sudden retreat of the British that robbed him of his confidence in winning the war.

Just look at the situation on the battlefield. It didn’t take long for the Vienna Government to help replenish the badly damaged Spanish expeditionary fleet; after defeating the Spanish Army, a group of French mercenaries arrived.

If things kept going like this, it wouldn’t be surprising if someday the Vienna Government decided to cast aside its charade and join the fray.

The support the enemy received from their backers was unimaginably strong, whereas our backers, aside from selling weapons and providing loans, were just offering moral support.

Even the moral support wasn’t enough; only the British were politically backing the Japanese Government, while Spain had the support of over a dozen European countries, entirely out of our league.

Now that even loans were not forthcoming, Kiyotaka Kuroda, who had originally opposed advancing south, completely lost hope of winning the war.

…

The imperial conference continued, but the situation in Tokyo had already taken a turn. No matter how many “victories” the government announced, the ongoing war couldn’t fool anyone.

Despite the Tokyo Government’s efforts to blockade news from the front, it couldn’t contain the truth. The embassies of various countries had no obligation to keep their silence, and the ships coming and going from Japan had no obligation to do so either.

Ordinary people couldn’t tell the veracity of the news, but their own stomachs didn’t lie. In the early days of the Japanese Army’s occupation of the Philippine Islands, they plundered a large amount of resources, and even the common people of Tokyo had a few good days.

But soon, the situation changed. As the Spanish counterattack began, Tokyo’s already falling prices surged upwards.

“When it rains, it pours.”

Against the backdrop of rising prices, people’s wages decreased instead of increased. The reason was that to raise more war funds, the Japanese Government taxed domestic companies, which in turn passed on the losses to the working class.

Toiling hard all day only to earn less than enough to make ends meet naturally led to discontent.

On June 16, 1894, a few textile workers in Tokyo, when purchasing rice at a rice shop, encountered an abrupt price hike. After failing to reason with the shopkeeper, they, in a moment of anger, directly robbed the rice shop.

People tend to follow the crowd, and seeing others lead the way in seizing rice, those who couldn’t bear hunger joined in.

One rice shop was definitely not enough for everyone, and those who were too late to get anything targeted other nearby rice shops. Before long, the entire street erupted into chaos.