Steel, Explosives, and Spellcasters

Chapter 443: Chapter 66 An Introduction to Statistics

The tiger refuses to descend from its lair, a fruitless effort to lure the snake from the hole.

Seeing no movement from the fortress’s defenders, the Herders slink back, once again completely surrounding the Bridgehead Fortress.

Just as Colonel Jeska had anticipated, the Terdon Tribe hadn’t lost their order; the pretense of disarray and panicked flight was merely a facade.

It’s actually more accurate to say that being able to feign such a convincing defeat, without devolving into an actual rout, further proved the Terdon leader’s control over his people.

Dark clouds hung low, and a deadly winter wind howled as vultures circled in the sky, portending more death and slaughter.

Watching the barbarian horde return after being defeated, the soldiers and militiamen struggled with disappointment and growing anxiety.

No one sang the hymns of praise anymore, and morale was not as high as before.

The previous tears of gratitude were now extinguished.

Winters felt some schadenfreude. He really wanted to point out, “It was us who led you to victory, yet you thank the gods instead. How does that make sense?”

But such words were far too blasphemous, so he kept them between himself and Bard.

Compared to the gloomy atmosphere among the soldiers, the officers were relatively relaxed and at ease.

The Terdon Tribe’s first siege had proven the star-shaped fortress’s robust defense.

Lacking siege weapons, the Cavalry were helpless against the earthen walls and deep trenches; all they could do was fill them with their bodies.

If the Herders were determined to gnaw on this tough bone, there was an easy solution—the bridge stood right behind the fortress. If it came down to it, they could retreat across the river and blow up the bridge, leaving the barbarians to stare helplessly from the bank.

This time, the Herders smartened up and aligned their troops beyond the effective range of the cannons.

Puffs of smoke rose in the distance, the number of enemies so immense they seemed endless.

Atop the watchtower, Mason chatted intermittently with Winters.

“Hey, do you notice something?” Mason asked with a puzzled expression. “From leaving to coming back, doesn’t it seem like there are even more Herder Cavalry out there?”

Winters shared the same feeling. “This morning, I saw about ten thousand Herder Cavalry. Now, there have to be at least twenty thousand.”

“Reinforcements?”

“Who knows?” Winters shrugged. “The colonel said that if the three tribes gritted their teeth, they could muster a hundred thousand archers. It wouldn’t surprise me if the full strength of the Terdon Tribe came out, given they even brought the ritual object, the ‘Golden Man’, to bolster their ranks.”

Mason shook his head with a wry smile, then hesitantly offered some advice to Winters: “Do you mind if I give some pointers?”

Winters was somewhat perplexed but answered earnestly, “Senior, please speak your mind.”

“In my opinion, instead of having your musketeers fire quickly, you should figure out how to make them shoot more accurately.”

Mason took out a sheepskin scroll filled with writing, looking expectantly at Winters. “Do you have statistics classes in your infantry courses?”

“We only have arithmetic and geometry,” Winters vehemently shook his head.

“Let me explain to you the concept of percentages then.”

[Author’s Note: Attentive readers may have noticed that so far, no use of percentages has occurred in this book. Terms like ‘two-tenths’, ‘one-fourth’, ‘half’ have been used instead.

This is because Winters Montagne has not learned about fractions or percentages. Only artillery officer students take statistics classes.

The history of statistics is very ancient and can be traced back to Aristotle’s ‘Constitution of the Cities’. The word statistics is derived from the word state. However, fractions and percentages have a more recent history, only appearing in the eighteenth century.

In this book, it’s assumed that Ned the Marshal’s friend, the founder of the artillery discipline, General Lionheart Euler, introduced concepts like ‘fraction’ and ‘percentage’.

After being taught by Mason, Winters learned a little about the rudiments of statistics. So starting from here, the notion of percentages and statistics will be officially introduced XD. Knowledge is power, new weapon acquired!]

After explaining what percentages are, Mason, holding the sheepskin scroll, recited, “Outside the fortress, I counted 347 Herder corpses. However, only 215 of them were near the trenches; the rest were outside the range of musket fire.”

Winters nodded. It had taken over two hundred deaths before the Terdon Tribe withdrew, which showed their tenacity.

Mason licked his finger and flipped to the next page. “On the walls, you positioned 341 musketeers who fired six and a half rounds, theoretically reaching 2210 shots. However, due to misfires, I looked at the data on your list, and your men actually fired a total of 1147 shots.”

As Mason spoke, Winters listened intently. The image of his pathfinder senior seemed to grow in stature.

Clearing his throat, Mason concluded, “That means, even if all 215 people by the trenches were killed by your musketeers, the hit rate would only be 18.7 percent, with the remaining 81.3 percent being misses.”

Winters gasped, “There could be cases where one person was killed by two shots…”

Mason raised his hand to halt his junior and continued, “Don’t forget, those 215 include the kills by my cannons and the musketeers you positioned below the walls. The actual kill efficiency is much lower than 18.7 percent. I estimate it’s less than 8 percent.

In other words, for the 1147 shots you fired, less than one hundred hit their mark. 52 percent of your musketeers, on average, fired only 1.51 shots over six rounds of firing, and less than 10 percent of the musketeers carried out all six shots.”

Mason rolled up the scroll and tapped Winters on the forehead, sharply rebuking, “You wastrel! Isn’t this a waste of ammunition? At the rate you’re going, you’re using at least 3.5 times more gunpowder than necessary, and our gunpowder reserves will be depleted in three days.”

Winters was left speechless.

He took the scroll, read through it carefully, then looked up and said, “A 48 percent misfire rate? That’s too high, it needs to be lowered. An 8 percent kill rate? That’s not bad!”

“Not bad?!” Mason said displeased. “Even the cannons are more efficient than that.”

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